3 March 1983 ICI-Tasman Wheat 82 yield estimates

Wheat yield predictions were usually about as accurate as market forecasts by political pundits, Dr Warwick Scott,
senior lecturer in plant science at Lincoln College, said this evening.

Dr Scott was commenting on his prediction of the yield of the first place-getter in the !CI-Tasman Wheat 82 competition.

His estimate of the first-place yield, made at the Wheat 82 Field Day late last year, was 5.4 tonnes a hectare.

In the event, the first place-getter, Ashburton mixed cropping farmer Anthony Pannett, achieved a yield of 5.66 tonnes.

"My estimate was almost correct - but for the wrong reasons," Dr Scott said.

"I underestimated how large the grains would grow during a cool December, and overestimated the number of grains
present.

"The two errors almost cancelled each other out." 

Dr Scott, who is on the Wheat 82 organising committee, said the additional fudge factors of header and screening losses made predictions difficult.