24 August 1999 Kiwi Dairying Decisions Help Development of Computer Model for Colombia

Decision-making and problem-solving processes among New Zealand dairy farmers may one day help the Colombian dairy farming industry through a research project at Lincoln University being carried out by Juan Vela of Bogota, Colombia.

Juan's task is to develop a computer simulation model which will integrate all the relevant aspects of dairy farming operations so that end-users can better manage the variables involved in successful milk production.

A computer simulation model, well ‘loaded’ with appropriate and relevant data, will allow farmers and farm consultants to successfully monitor, analyse, assess and make predictions about dairying operations.

"It will be a valuable management tool," says Juan, "and it will remove much of the guesswork from what can be a sensitive balancing act as farmers work to optimise production in the face of all sorts of variables such as the weather, stock numbers, pasture choice and feed quality, animal health and breeding issues, market demand and prices, and labour costs."

While the data Juan is using to develop his computer model is Colombian – because that's where the model will be used – he has been looking closely at how New Zealand farmers carry out their decision-making and go about solving problems.

"How Kiwis approach a problem in order to get a solution, that's what I have been looking at here," he says. And he has been visiting a number of dairying properties as part of his investigations, including Lincoln University's 108-hectare dairy farm with its 300-cow herd.

Juan is 12 months into his two-year Master of Agricultural Science degree, for which the project is the research component, and in July he travelled back to Colombia briefly to determine if the information he has assembled so far will validate his model.

"I was checking theoretical outcomes with real outcomes to see how useful and accurate they were," he says.

One of the dilemmas he faces as he develops the model is how complex or simple to make it. At the simple end of the scale, users of the model would have to make their own estimates of production responses to different inputs which the model would then translate into farm production, costs and returns. At the more complex end, the model would have to contain sufficient detail to make the estimates for the users.

"What we've got to do is strike the right balance between the knowledge of the user and the size and complexity of the model," says Juan.

It is pioneering work for Colombia. Computer simulation models for the dairy industry exist in New Zealand but conditions are different.

Juan hopes that when he has completed the model it will be introduced to the industry in his home region of Boyaca through the Federation of Farmers of Boyaca. This is a non-governmental, farmer-centred group aimed at improving the lifestyle, well-being, and business activities of farmers.

Boyaca is a mountainous department in central Colombia about 2800 metres above sea level with temperatures around the equivalent of late summer/early autumn in New Zealand. It is good for dairying with most of the production being consumed within the region.

Juan, who comes from a farming family, says he chose to study in New Zealand because its pasture-based dairying industry is similar to Colombia's. His research is being supervised by the Director of Lincoln University's Animal and Food Sciences Division, Professor Tony Bywater.

There are four students from Colombia at Lincoln University, three doing masters degrees in dairy production and one doing resource management.

Ian Collins, Journalist, Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand