18 April 2013 The impact of low carbon diets

New research into low carbon diets in the EU and US reveals the impact of overseas lifestyle changes on New Zealand trade and the environment.

The Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit (AERU) has recently undertaken research into how global dietary changes could affect trade and the environment and consequently transform land use and the economy in New Zealand.

Meike Guenther, researcher at the AERU, said this research is particularly important for New Zealand as an exporting country that depends heavily on its agricultural exports.  “In some industrialised countries, there are movements directed to reducing the consumption of meat and dairy products,” says Ms Guenther.  “As livestock production has been identified as a large contributor to climate change, changes in consumer behaviour are being identified as important for reducing the impact of climate change.  However, any effects on consumption and production in export markets could have an affect on the domestic production and trade in New Zealand.”

The research assesses the potential impact of these global dietary shifts on trade and the environment by utilising the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM) – a non-spatial, partial equilibrium international trade model that uses data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Using the LTEM model, Ms Guenther and her colleague have been able to forecast international trade and domestic production, as well as consumption of agricultural commodities, based on four scenarios: scenarios one and two postulated that 10% and then 50% of the population adopts a vegetarian diet; scenarios three and four used the same percentages, but with a vegan diet.

The results in the EU and US showed that in both sets of scenarios, there were declines in returns from the meat and dairy industries, but large increases in returns from other industries, such as oilseed, due to substitution. In the US, agriculture benefits in all scenarios; however, in New Zealand, producer returns fell due to the country’s large export market.  Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock decrease in all scenarios.

For more information, read the full article on page 72 of the University’s research profile publication Transform.