6 November 2025 Lincoln University secures Marsden funding to predict future weed invasions

Lincoln University’s Distinguished Professor Philip Hulme has been awarded a Marsden grant of $853,000 over three years for his innovative research project Buyer Beware: Predicting emerging exotic weeds in New Zealand. The funding is part of a broader Marsden Fund investment of $80.26 million across 107 successful proposals nationwide. Marsden grants are highly competitive and are widely regarded as a hallmark of research excellence in New Zealand. 

Professor Hulme’s project will harness 20 years of online sales data to identify ornamental plant species that pose a high risk of becoming invasive weeds in New Zealand. The research aims to inform biosecurity policy and management strategies that could include sales bans and targeted surveillance, potentially saving millions in future weed control costs.

“The ornamental plant trade is a major pathway for invasive species in New Zealand,” says Distinguished Professor Hulme. “By analysing e-commerce data, we can identify which species are most likely to become problematic before they spread. This proactive approach is essential for protecting our unique ecosystems and agricultural productivity.”

The project builds on his previous Marsden-funded research, which analysed historical nursery catalogues to show, for the first time, that plants frequently sold or priced cheaply are more likely to become invasive. With the rise of e-commerce, the risk of plant invasions has increased significantly, making this research both timely and critical.

“This research seeks to help safeguard New Zealand’s biodiversity and economy. Non-native plants threaten over half of critically endangered ecosystems and one-third of nationally threatened plant species, costing at least $50 million annually in control costs. 

“The risks from e-commerce sales have been of concern for several years, but a thorough assessment of the risk has yet to be conducted. Our project will address this gap using an innovative approach that includes implementing AI to explore sales trends of hundreds of plant species over multiple years,” says Distinguished Professor Hulme.

The project will also explore whether differential pricing can reduce the sale of high-risk species and assess the feasibility of sales bans to limit online trade. Results will be shared with relevant authorities to support evidence-based decision-making.

Lincoln University Provost Professor Chad Hewitt says the project reflects the university’s commitment to addressing the critical issues and challenges facing the land-based sectors. 

“This research adds to the significant biosecurity and bioprotection focus of Lincoln University, adding value to New Zealand’s land-based sectors in areas of great importance.”

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